Lock-Down - Pakistan & World

By: Mati Khan Yousafzai, Geoscientist 

Covid-19 originated in China’s city of Wuhan, declared ‘pandemic’ by World Health Organization on 11^th March 2020. Its exponential increase in cases and spreading rate has shaken the entire world.  Around the globe it has been spread to 210 countries. As there’s no vaccine to treat the virus, therefore countries are adapting different strategies to tackle the dire situation. Due to Lack of any proper treatment and vaccination, the world is adjusting to a new normal that are to isolate people, maintain social distancing, restrictions on crowd and gatherings. To achieve the desire results and minimize the spread governments following different model: complete lock down,  no lock-down i.e. herd immunity, while others following a partial lock down.  In a developing country like Pakistan, we need smart-lock down.

                                                 Initially when the Corona Virus emerged in China, the world did not pay any attention. With the passage of time when Chinese media reported mortalities on daily basis then it raised eye brows of the concerned organizations and governments.  Wuhan city of China become the epicenter of Covid-19. Countries started evacuation of their citizen. China completely lock-down the entire Wuhan city, no entry and exit. They built state of the art hospitals within a week.  They strictly followed the rule testing, isolation, contact tracing and finally quarantine. They provided people continuous supply of food, medicine and other daily essentials at their doorstep. For the first time that’s how complete lock-down appeared as an effective strategy to contain virus, and that was the reason it did not spread to the rest of China.

                                           While the countries who in a state of emergency evacuated their citizen; they were just evacuated. They were neither properly tested nor quarantined; it was later made mandatory by almost all governments.   They are the people who spread the virus in their respective countries, and the spreading rate become exponential.  There are few factors that are timings, available medical resources and financial condition of a country defined “a country’s approach” which strategy to follow.

For example South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong’s took a timely decision by putting severe restrictions on all movements. They also followed Chinese model of testing, isolation, tracing of contact and quarantining. So with appropriate timings of decision making, it is also important to have available medical equipment for testing.

                                        On contrary leaders and presidents in Europe and North America ignored the advice of medical experts and followed altogether a different approach to cope up with the pandemic.  That’s the reason Italy, Spain, Germany, France, United States of America and United Kingdom is on top of the chart list as per www.worldometers.info .  Although they possess all the available medical and financial resources but their “timing of decision making” lead them to a complete disaster. Unlike its neighbors Sweden following a relaxed approach by leaving everything on herd immunity, despite having more than 5000 confirmed cases.

                                                     

Pakistan, a developing country in South Asia, having 30% of its population living below the poverty line - initially somewhat followed Chinese model. The prime minister of the country were not in the view to completely lock down the country, later the provinces separately had taken the lead and completely lock-down their respective provinces for a period of two weeks. After first phase of lock-down on 14^th April 18, 2020 the prime minister in his address to the nation admitted that cases raised by 30% than expected, (expected and projected cases were 25000 to 50000, projection report submitted by government in Supreme Court of Pakistan). It showed that a complete lock-down was very effective like South Korea and others. But in a country like Pakistan,  where financial capability and those 30% people living below the poverty line made it almost practically  impossible to go with the further complete lock-down.

Majority of them are daily wagers, government were unable to access and address them like China did in Wuhan. Pakistan’s financial situation is deteriorating and it cannot afford to distribute ration and feed its poor people for a longer period of time. So a new approach followed by the government to go for smart lock-down, which is somewhat similar to partial lock-down, allowing some businesses to  run and banning others. Those businesses were given preference and allowed to be functional which is directly or indirectly linked with the daily wagers lives. Pakistan’s timely decisions saved thousands of people in complete lock-down but its financial instability did not allow going with further extension. Even the world may not afford longer complete lock-down; one way or the other countries would be adjusting to a new normal – that’s to follow ‘smart lock-down’.